IDMC global disaster displacement risk modelling

• Organisation: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
• Contract: Consultancy
• Deadline: 12 November 2026

IDMC’s disaster displacement risk work complements its monitoring of past and current displacement by providing evidence on where and at what scale displacement may occur in the future. The Global Disaster Displacement Risk Model provides probabilistic estimates of displacement risk associated with different hazards and under current and future climate conditions.

Through its collaboration with UNU-EHS and other technical partners, IDMC has progressively strengthened the model, including, through improvements to hazard and exposure data, vulnerability modelling, geographic resolution and the range of hazards considered. The existing collaboration has also supported the development of new approaches, including impact forecasting.

The next phase provides an opportunity to consolidate these advances. IDMC has recently updated its historical displacement data, including improvements to the geographic specificity of displacement information. This provides a stronger empirical basis for updating and validating the model and strengthening national and subnational risk estimates.

At the same time, methodological work undertaken during the current phase has identified promising areas for further development, including multi-hazard risk modelling and impact forecasting. The impact-forecasting proof of concept, for example, has been tested through hindcasts of 217 historical tropical cyclone events and demonstrated through a live application to Hurricane Melissa. Further testing against observed displacement data and integration of recent improvements to the underlying risk model have been identified as important next steps.

IDMC and NRC seek an agency or consortium to deliver the phased technical work below under a framework agreement. The provider will update and validate the risk estimates, develop a defensible multi-hazard framework, test impact forecasting, document methods and transfer reproducible outputs to IDMC.

• For more details on the scope of work, expected deliverables, and requirements, please refer to the Terms of Reference (ToR), in the attachment .

• For more details on the eligibility, please refer to the Programmes Eligibility (ECPE), in the attachment.

• For more details on the invitation to bid, please refer to the Invitation to Bid (ITB), in the attachment.